When Secretary of State Cathy Cox walked out into the sunlight on Wednesday morning, she announced that her office had processed 41,000 new voter registration applications the night before.
And expected to handle the same number again by the end of the day.
Do the math. Those two days alone will represent 3 percent of the 2.5 million votes cast in the 2000 presidential election. Statewide elections in Georgia are routinely decided by fewer than 82,000 votes. Ask Roy Barnes.
In Cox's mailroom, pigeon holes arranged by 159 counties are stuffed with voter registration forms. Those from metro Atlanta are emptied several times a day, and still overflow.
This is big stuff, especially given the shifting Democratic attention toward the aging suburbs of Atlanta.
Republicans acknowledge that they're on the losing end of this deluge. And there's plenty of evidence to support their misgivings.
In 2000, African-Americans — the vanguard of the Democratic party — accounted for 25.4 percent of registered voters and 23 percent of the actual vote. As of today, blacks make up 26.9 percent of the Georgia vote — a significant uptick. In September, African-Americans made up 36 percent of new registrations.
Certainly, it doesn't mean we just color Georgia blue and go home. George Bush's electoral votes are safe. Johnny Isakson probably is, too.
But it does mean that Republicans — if they intend to capture the entire Legislature, preserve U.S. Rep. Max Burns and topple U.S. Rep. Jim Marshall— must mount a furious turnout campaign over the next four weeks. Absentee ballots, advance voting, rides to the poll — the works.
Another reason for not throwing in the towel: At least in the 2000 presidential race, last-minute registrants were less likely to vote in November than more practiced voters. For thousands, the passion that drove them to register evaporated by the time George W. Bush and Al Gore presented themselves on the ballot.
Atlanta Journal-Constitution database editor David Milliron has run the numbers. Of all those who registered between Jan. 1, 2000, and Oct. 7, 2000, only 65 percent voted in November. General turnout was 69 percent. African-Americans who registered late were even less likely to show up in November — only 58 percent voted in the general election. For whites, the figure was 68 percent.
The message for Democrats is clear. It's not enough to register voters. They have to get them to the polls, too.
Absentee ballots, advance voting, rides to the poll. You know — the works.
Excess gusting in real life and a lack of it on the tube could spell trouble for Republicans in Florida
A rash of big winds and a less-than-inspiring performance by President Bush during the first debate in Miami could conspire to cause trouble for Republicans in all-important Florida, according to Matt Towery, the Georgia pollster.
In statewide polls, George Bush leads John Kerry by a smidgen. The same slim margin divides Republican Mel Martinez and Democrat Betty Castor in the U.S. Senate race.
Geography makes clear that the four hurricanes of the last few weeks raked Republican areas more than Democratic ones — particularly on the Eastern coast and the Panhandle.
The measure of Bush's performance is more indirect.
A Towery poll conducted two days after the first presidential debate asked voters to gauge turnout in their own community — a backhanded but effective way to measure the intensity of those being polled.
In South Florida, which is Democratic territory, 62 percent of voters — with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points — predicted a high turnout on Nov. 2. In central Florida, another haven for Democrats, 60 percent said their communities were pumped.
But in the Panhandle, where Bush support is strongest, only 52 percent of voters polled predicted a "high" turnout — despite the fact that more of them said they tuned in to the Sept. 30 debate.
Statewide, 57 percent of Floridians declared John Kerry the winner of the debate. Even in the Panhandle, only 45 percent said Bush did the best. We're thinking this is sand poured into Ralph Reed's turnout machine.
The Florida poll is part of an inaugural effort by Towery to start a polling-and-politics subscription newsletter in that state — similar to Bill Shipp's Georgia, which Towery operates here.
Now, why should we shamelessly flog a competitor's product?
Because he's calling it the Florida Insider, and we feel like a pair of flattered godfathers. Here's the link: www.flinsider.com.
Says Marshall: The rocks thrown by Clay haven't hurt, and have even helped
U.S. Rep. Jim Marshall of Macon has floated a poll that shows him extending his lead slightly over Republican challenger Calder Clay in the 3rd District.
A campaign survey released Wednesday puts Marshall at 53 percent to Clay's 24 percent. In August, the first-term Democrat registered at 51 percent of the vote.
Marshall's campaign is touting the numbers as proof that a harsh TV campaign by Clay hasn't hurt — and might have backfired on the Republican.
You never listen. Didn't we just tell you that the real fight would be over turnout?
The legal badminton between Georgia's political parties continues. On Wednesday, Bobby Kahn, chairman of the state Democratic party, accused Republicans of breaking state law by including political advertising with absentee ballot applications mailed to prospective voters. The wording indicates the mailing was targeted at those who had previously picked up Republican primary ballots.
"It is clear from the Georgia Republican Party financial disclosure ... that they are investing heavily in this illegal activity, having spent $123,500 to mail the absentee ballot applications," Kahn wrote in a formal letter to the state Elections Board. He is asking the body to immediately hang a $5,000 fine for each of the hundreds of thousands of flyers that hit a mailbox.
Finally, a sensible way to avoid that college tuition increase.
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